01
2022
Injury / availability
Dak Prescott thumb timeline
Tests evolving medical estimates, time ranges and superseded information.
Selected
Historical backtest · 2022–2026
Test the hard cases
before ranking anyone.
These twelve clusters were chosen to expose bad rules: private process claims, changing injury information, false corroboration, loaded headlines, direct denials, tiny lead times and unresolved outcomes.
Stage 1 / Stress test
Twelve reporting clusters.
No pre-judged grades.
Each case starts as a source-preservation and classification exercise. Reviewers split and classify claims before the outcome packet is revealed.
02
2022
Interest vs. outcome
Odell Beckham Jr. visit
Separates a verified visit from talks, readiness, expected signing and inference.
Selected
03
2023
Clean transaction
Brandin Cooks trade
A control case for compensation, lead time and official confirmation.
Selected
04
2023
Source timing
Trey Lance surprise trade
Tests simultaneous reports, exact compensation and a short confirmation window.
Selected
05
2024
Contradictory evidence
Mike Zimmer–Rex Ryan sequence
Expected hire, public dispute, renewed contact and final agreement.
Selected
06
2024
Speculation laundering
Derrick Henry–Dallas narrative
Traces how an obvious fit can become a claim of contact without a reporting root.
Selected
07
2024
Negotiation
CeeDee Lamb extension
Tests holdout updates, terms, deadlines and a long aggregation cycle.
Selected
08
2024
Atomic terms
Dak Prescott extension
Separates years, dollars, guarantees and agreement timing.
Selected
09
2025
Joint reporting
Micah Parsons Packers trade
A same-day sequence with joint bylines, compensation and disputed guarantees.
Selected
10
2025
Denials and roots
Maxx Crosby contact claims
Tests local denials, direct questions and whether no trade proves anything.
Selected
11
2025
Vague-to-specific
Quinnen Williams deadline trade
Moves from Jerry Jones’s tease to specific sourced terms and confirmation.
Selected
12
2026
Holdout / unresolved
George Pickens trade-call rumors
Tests time-scoped denials, proposals, current uncertainty and restraint.
Selected
Stage 2 / Protocol
Outcome-blind
where it counts.
- 01
Preserve the sourceSave wording, timestamps, bylines and lawful excerpts.
- 02
Split the claimsTwo reviewers define atomic propositions before outcomes.
- 03
Map the chainFind roots, derivatives and truly independent corroboration.
- 04
Reveal evidenceResolve and score only after classification is locked.
- 05
Audit disagreementKeep both codings and a written adjudication.
Stage 3 / Launch gates
What must be true before v1.0
Reporter rankings remain provisional until minimum samples, reviewer agreement, source preservation and calibration reporting all pass.